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Saturday Weekly Recap — Week of Sep 21–25, 2026

This week split cleanly into two halves. Monday was the cleanest session of the week — a synchronized reclaim with SPY +1.55%, QQQ +2.77%, and NVDA +2.30%. All three names printed their weekly highs on Tuesday, then the tape rolled over.

Wednesday broke every pivot from the open. Overnight into Thursday, rates took over the story: the 10-year Treasury yield pushed as high as 5.20% after NY Fed President Williams called another rate hike by year-end “reasonable.” SPY and NVDA set their weekly lows Thursday, and Friday brought a partial recovery led by a clean SPY reclaim into a $771.35 close.

On the week, QQQ led at +3.19%. SPY (+1.27%) and NVDA (+1.26%) finished essentially tied — a full role reversal for NVDA, which went from last week’s best performer to this week’s weakest leg.

Weekly Ranges

Ticker Range Fri Close Week
SPY $763.25 – $775.14 $771.35 +1.27%
QQQ $727.81 – $748.35 $744.50 +3.19%
NVDA $221.09 – $229.98 $225.07 +1.26%

This Week’s Track Record

1 CONFIRMED · 3 CONFIRMED PARTIAL · 1 INVALIDATED across five graded sessions. Every call is graded mechanically against the invalidation level stated before the open — including the misses. Wednesday’s thesis was invalidated outright, and it’s graded that way.

The Week Ahead

Next week is a much heavier U.S. calendar than the one just finished:

Tue 9/29RBA decision (hike forecast), JOLTS, Consumer Confidence
Wed 9/30Core PCE, Final GDP, ADP
Thu 10/1Jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing, Fed’s Waller
Fri 10/2Non-Farm Payrolls, 8:30 AM ET

House lean: let the rates reaction to Wednesday’s Core PCE set the tone before leaning on any pivot reclaim, and treat Friday’s payrolls as the week’s decisive print.

This is the headline read. Paid subscribers get all the information behind it: the full day-by-day grading write-ups, the complete week-ahead catalyst matrix with forecasts, and the weekly structural levels — plus a daily pre-market report every trading day with the full trade framework, institutional positioning, options-flow concentrations, and the Thesis Tree.

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— Nate

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