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SPY Tests $745 For The First Time In Days
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Futures are green and most semis are too — but QQQ still hasn't joined the move.
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SPY / QQQ / NVDA prices below reflect this morning's pre–market pull — check live levels against your own feed before acting.
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Friday's Call — Invalidated
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Friday's stated bear/escalation thesis (~55%) needed a confirmed complex–wide close and hold above $745 (SPY) / $700 (QQQ) / $205 (NVDA) to invalidate — and that's exactly what happened. All three names confirmed consecutive 15–minute closes above their invalidation levels in an overlapping midday window (SPY 12:15–1:30, QQQ 12:45–1:15, NVDA 12:45–1:30) — a genuine, complex–wide invalidation, not a brief wick. The move faded back into the close (SPY $743.29, QQQ $695.33, NVDA $202.81), but the invalidation condition triggered as stated, mid–session, across all three names together. Grade: INVALIDATED.
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Today's Live Setup, For Reference
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That invalidation carried through the weekend. SPY prints $745.11 pre–market — the first pre–market push above its $745 pivot this cycle, though not yet a confirmed hold. NVDA holds $203.85, a $3.85 cushion above its $200 pivot. QQQ is the one name that hasn't joined them, printing $699.02, still $0.98 below its $700 pivot. Futures are broadly green into the open (Dow +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.48%, S&P +0.25%), and six of seven tracked semiconductor names — including SK Hynix, up 2.64% — trade above prior close, a notable contrast to the leveraged South Korean retail unwind headline that circulated over the weekend. Today's calendar is unusually light: no US data of consequence, no Fed speakers, and the Fed is now in FOMC blackout ahead of the Jul 28–29 meeting. Alphabet and Tesla both report Wednesday, July 22 — the more likely decisive catalyst for the week.
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Free Insight
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Over the weekend, the wire story was leveraged South Korean retail traders getting wiped out unwinding losing SK Hynix and Samsung bets. This morning, SK Hynix is trading up 2.64%. Either the panic already got priced in Friday and this is the bounce, or the bad news hasn't caught up to the tape yet — and today is where that gets tested. Worth remembering next time a scary headline doesn't match the price action: the market usually knows first.
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Every call in this letter gets graded the same way, win or lose — CONFIRMED, CONFIRMED PARTIAL, INVALIDATED, or CHOP, no spin either direction. If you want to see the full run, hits and misses both, the public track record is here: View the track record →
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The free version stops at the levels. The paid version adds the part that actually matters this morning — whether QQQ's gap to $700 is worth trading, and how, with the full R:R math shown before the open.
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Nate
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Flow Maps Pro (and “The Macro Letter”) is an educational platform providing institutional macro market research, order flow analysis, and mathematical data for educational and informational purposes only. We are not registered financial advisors, broker–dealers, or commodity trading advisors (CTAs). While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, pricing, strikes, dates, and trade levels may contain errors or become outdated without notice. No content, tools, or trade frameworks shared constitute a personalized recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, option, or financial instrument. Options trading involves a high degree of risk and can result in the loss of your entire principal. Past performance or options flow anomalies do not guarantee future market results. All sales are final. By utilizing this platform, you agree that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and risk management.
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