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Friday, September 18, 2026 — Pre-Market
SPY, QQQ, and NVDA are splitting slightly pre-market after yesterday's synchronized, tech-led rally — SPY has drifted just below its decision price while QQQ and NVDA have firmed just above theirs. Today is also quarterly triple witching, so we're watching for pinning and elevated volume into the close, not just direction.
Ticker Spot Pivot Bias
SPY $762.80 $763.00 $0.20 below
QQQ $721.10 $720.50 $0.60 above
NVDA $221.60 $221.00 $0.60 above
Session Bias: Need Confirmation, cautiously bullish — 40% bull / 30% bear / 30% chop-split.
The macro backdrop leans supportive — VIX easing further, oil retreating, credit stable — but the 10-year ticked back up to 4.951% overnight instead of continuing to ease, and Nasdaq-100 breadth actually weakened during yesterday's advance. Two Fed speakers are on deck today, the first commentary since Wednesday's hike: Bowman at 9:30 AM ET and Schmid at 11:45 AM ET, both real windows for the 10-year to move. Overseas, Asia ran hot overnight (Nikkei +1.38%, Kospi +2.66%) but Europe hasn't confirmed that strength — the DAX is trading red intraday as its session remains open. We want all three of our names holding their levels together through those Fed windows before treating this as a real signal, not just splitting quietly like they are right now.
This is the headline read. Paid subscribers also get the full trade framework with entry triggers and R:R math on all three names, the complete institutional positioning and options-flow breakdown, and the full Thesis Tree with the specific catalyst that would flip today's call — all before the open.
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— Nate
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