SPY And QQQ Confirm Above Pivot — NVDA Is The Name Still Playing Catch-Up.

SPY / QQQ / NVDA prices below reflect this morning's pre-market pull — check live levels against your own feed before acting.

Monday's Call — Confirmed Partial

Thesis (stated ~45%): Reclaim attempt in progress — SPY tests $745 pivot on a first push through, QQQ remains below $700 as the unconfirmed piece, NVDA holds above $200 on the semiconductor relief bid, on a broadly green pre-market tape.

Invalidation: confirmed complex-wide close and hold below $740 (SPY) / $692 (QQQ), with NVDA losing $200.

What happened: NVDA delivered its primary lean cleanly — held above $204 for roughly 30 minutes early in the session and tagged $207.72, the stated target, before fading to close $203.28, still well clear of the $200 invalidation level (low $203.17). SPY closed one candle above $746 ($748.56) but failed to hold — candle 2 closed back at $745.69, and price continued through its own stated $744 negation level to close $742.09. QQQ never closed above its $701 trigger, wicking to $705.4 intraday without a confirmed hold, and closed $696.06. No leg came close to the bear invalidation. A genuine split — one of three legs resolved as stated.

Grade: CONFIRMED PARTIAL.

Today's Live Setup, For Reference

Both unconfirmed legs from last session have now confirmed. SPY prints $745.93 pre-market, $5.93 above its $740 pivot and through the prior $745 confirm level. QQQ prints $704.90, $7.90 above a raised $697 pivot and through the prior $700 confirm level — the level that hadn't joined the move as of Monday. NVDA holds $205.40, $5.40 above its $200 pivot, but is now the one name in the complex still short of its own confirm level, sitting $4.60 below $210.

The setup: the semiconductor tape has gone from constructive to outright strong overnight — Micron +5.92%, SK Hynix +6.93%, Marvell +6.08%, Applied Materials +5.33%, Intel +4.88%, AMD +3.88%, SOXX +3.84%. Asia closed sharply higher (Nikkei +3.26%, KOSPI +3.56%), and US futures confirm the tone into the open (Nasdaq +1.29%, S&P +0.51%, Dow +0.32%). Breadth keeps eroding even as price extends, and MOVE broke to a fresh high — the one divergence arguing against a clean trend day. Today's calendar is light, FOMC blackout is active, and Wednesday's Alphabet/Tesla earnings remain the week's real catalyst.

NVDA's $210 level is the tell — the one confirm level in the complex that hasn't given way despite the strongest sector tailwind of this stretch.

Free Insight

SPY and QQQ just confirmed the exact levels this letter flagged as unconfirmed on Monday. That's not a coincidence — it's the whole point of drawing a hard line between "reclaim attempt" and "confirmed reclaim" instead of calling every green pre-market print a breakout. NVDA is sitting in that same unconfirmed spot right now, one name behind a sector move that's materially stronger than Monday's. Worth watching whether it closes that gap today, or whether the complex stays a "two-out-of-three" story into Wednesday's earnings.

Free vs. Paid, This Morning

The free version stops at the levels above. Here's what the paid version had before the open today:

Every trade idea in the paid letter ships with the math shown, not just a level and a hunch — and every call gets graded the same honest way you saw above, win or lose.

Nate

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