Good morning. SPY and NVDA are opening a few cents above their key levels this morning, while QQQ is sitting just under its own — meaning the tape hasn't picked a direction yet heading into the open. Today's primary read leans bullish, but confirmation isn't in hand across the board yet.
| Ticker | Spot | Level | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $766.53 | $766.50 | Above |
| QQQ | $719.12 | $719.50 | Below — needs to reclaim |
| NVDA | $226.05 | $226.00 | Above |
Session Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish — 40% bull (primary) / 30% bear / 30% chop.
The real catalyst today isn't the open — it's the 1:00 PM ET $39B 10-year Treasury note reopening. Strong demand eases the rates headwind and supports continued trade above these levels; weak demand revives it and opens the door to a breakdown. Underneath the surface, breadth is still the story: only 42% of S&P 500 names and 45% of Russell 2000 names sit above their 50-day averages, even as the index prices look calm. Oil remains elevated near $94.60 as the U.S.-Iran standoff escalates further overnight.
This is the headline read. Paid subscribers also get the full trade framework for all three tickers — entry triggers, invalidation levels, and 2:1 risk/reward setups on both sides — the institutional positioning and options-flow synthesis, and the full Thesis Tree breaking down the bull, bear, and chop scenarios in detail, all before the bell.
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— Nate
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