Yesterday's call graded CONFIRMED PARTIAL — not a clean sweep. SPY never confirmed a 15-minute close below $750 (it wicked to $750.25 intraday, then ran back to close $754.81) — that leg held exactly as scripted. QQQ did the opposite of the thesis: it confirmed a break below its $720 pivot at 10:00 AM and never reclaimed it, closing $717.75. NVDA round-tripped — broke $210 at 11:15 AM, reclaimed it by 2:30 PM, closed $212.50. One of three legs behaved as scripted. That's the honest grade, not a win dressed up as one.
Here's today's live setup, for reference:
Pre-market, SPY was below its $755 pivot, QQQ's cushion above $715 had thinned to almost nothing — down from $2.70 two sessions ago — and NVDA was trading under its $212 pivot. Those exact prices have likely moved by the time you're reading this. What hasn't moved: all three names are below or barely holding their lines into the open.
The structural fact of the day: the overnight Asia semiconductor selloff has been independently confirmed as worse and broader than the first read — SK Hynix down more than 11% (reversing Wednesday's own +8% rally), Samsung down more than 7%, SoftBank down nearly 7% — and the rout has spread beyond the original names into equipment and component suppliers.
Layered on top: the Strait of Hormuz situation escalated overnight. Iran is now calling the Strait itself a "red line" and has threatened to strike infrastructure across the wider Gulf region if the U.S. follows through on hitting Iran's own infrastructure.
The scheduled catalyst: Retail Sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and weekly Unemployment Claims all land at 8:30 AM ET, followed by two Fed speakers (Logan, Jefferson).
One free insight
VIX ticked higher overnight (15.67 → 15.85), which makes sense given the confirmed-worse chip selloff. But the MOVE Index — the bond market's version of VIX — held completely flat at 68.48. When equity vol moves and bond vol doesn't, it usually means one of two things: either the stock market is pricing in more panic than the situation actually warrants, or the bond market just hasn't caught up yet. Worth watching which one turns out to be right today.
Every call in this letter gets graded the same way, win or lose — CONFIRMED, CONFIRMED PARTIAL, INVALIDATED, or CHOP, no spin either direction. Yesterday's call landed CONFIRMED PARTIAL, exactly as described above. If you want to see the full run, hits and misses both, the public track record is here: View the track record →
Nate
Standard Institutional Disclaimer
Flow Maps Pro (and “The Macro Letter”) is an educational platform providing institutional macro market research, order flow analysis, and mathematical data for educational and informational purposes only. We are not registered financial advisors, broker-dealers, or commodity trading advisors (CTAs). While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, pricing, strikes, dates, and trade levels may contain errors or become outdated without notice. No content, tools, or trade frameworks shared constitute a personalized recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, option, or financial instrument. Options trading involves a high degree of risk and can result in the loss of your entire principal. Past performance or options flow anomalies do not guarantee future market results. All sales are final. By utilizing this platform, you agree that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and risk management.