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Weekly recap and setup: Oct 12 – Oct 16, 2026
Hot inflation prints and an AI-financing selloff drove the week. SPY lost 1.97%, QQQ lost 5.52% and NVDA lost 6.61%, and all three closed Friday within $2.61 of their weekly lows.
The weekly ranges
SPY: $760.64 – $779.40 (width $18.76). Week –1.97%, Friday close $763.25.
QQQ: $707.23 – $749.79 (width $42.56). Week –5.52%, Friday close $709.80.
NVDA: $212.85 – $228.86 (width $16.01). Week –6.61%, Friday close $214.13.
What drove it
CPI printed 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected, and PPI jumped 1.3% m/m against 0.6%. Yields did not follow: the 10Y finished at 5.085%, 15.7bp below the prior Friday. The pressure came from AI financing instead, with the 20 most valuable AI and semiconductor stocks losing more than $1 trillion this week, per CNBC. VIX closed at 19.99, up 21.45% on Friday alone.
Where that leaves the setup
SPY, QQQ and NVDA sit $2.61, $2.57 and $1.28 above their weekly lows of $760.64, $707.23 and $212.85. Those lows are the first levels to watch. Breadth split on the week: S&P 500 above its 50-day average rose to 45.12% while the Nasdaq-100 fell to 38.61%. Treat any bounce as unconfirmed until it holds on cash-session closes.
Coming week
U.S. data is light, with no high-impact releases flagged: housing starts Tuesday, jobless claims Thursday and the flash PMIs Friday at 9:45 AM ET. Earnings take over. Netflix reports after hours Tuesday, Oct 20. Meta and Tesla report after hours Wednesday, Oct 21, alongside Lam Research, Texas Instruments, SAP and IBM. Procter & Gamble reports pre-market Thursday and American Express pre-market Friday. The FOMC meets Oct 27 to 28, and the blackout runs through Thursday, Oct 29, so no Fed speakers are scheduled.
Track record for the week
1 Confirmed, 1 Confirmed Partial, 1 Chop and 2 Invalidated across five sessions. Direction was right on the bearish days, but on three sessions no leg ever retested its pivot, so the retest entries never fired. Grades are mechanical and reported as they land. See the live track record.
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— Nate
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