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Weekly Setup: What's Actually Moving SPY, QQQ & NVDA Next Week
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Saturday Weekly Recap · Week Covered: Sep 14–18, 2026
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Next week resets a lot lighter than the FOMC/BoE/BoJ convergence we just traded through. There's no single U.S. rate decision on the calendar — the highest-impact windows are Wednesday's Flash PMI batch out of Europe and the UK, and Thursday's Swiss National Bank decision alongside U.S. jobless claims. Friday closes things out with revised UMich consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
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House Read: With no dominant U.S. data point on the calendar, expect price action to lean more on digesting last week's Fed outcome than on fresh domestic catalysts. Wednesday's Flash PMIs are the week's best read on global growth momentum heading into Q4. Treat Friday's late-session QQQ/NVDA spike with some skepticism heading into Monday — that move came entirely inside the closing-auction window, not from sustained buying.
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This Week's Range
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SPY: $749.60 – $763.57 (width $13.97) · closed $761.69 (–0.34% on the week)
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QQQ: $700.00 – $721.73 (width $21.73, widest of the three) · closed $721.45 (+0.92% on the week)
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NVDA: $208.93 – $222.73 (width $13.80, narrowest of the three) · closed $222.27 (+1.82% on the week — the week's clear outperformer)
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The story of the week was NVDA's reversal: after finishing last week as the sharpest laggard (down roughly 5.24%), it flipped to this week's best performer, holding its own bullish level all the way through Wednesday's Fed-driven selloff that broke both SPY and QQQ. Thursday was the week's one genuinely clean session — all three names held their pivots wire-to-wire. Friday's quarterly triple-witching close then delivered its own split: SPY spent the entire session on the bear side with no real test, while QQQ and NVDA both spiked above their lines in a single closing-auction candle.
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Track Record: 1 CONFIRMED · 4 CONFIRMED PARTIAL · 0 INVALIDATED
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Five sessions graded, and it was a genuinely split week: Wednesday's Fed decision broke SPY and QQQ in the 2:30–2:45 PM Warsh-presser window while NVDA held its own level throughout. Thursday was the clean, synchronized reclaim. This is the mechanical, no-spin grading we apply to every session — CONFIRMED, CONFIRMED PARTIAL, or INVALIDATED, no exceptions. See the full public track record →
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This is the headline read. Paid subscribers also get the full daily thesis and grading write-up for every session, structural R:R trade frameworks on all three names, institutional positioning & options flow, and the complete Thesis Tree breakdown — every day, before the open.
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Talk soon,
— Nate
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