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SPY / QQQ / NVDA prices below as of 5:30 AM ET — check live levels against your own feed before acting, especially given how fast the Hormuz situation has been moving.
Yesterday's Call — Confirmed
Yesterday's defensive/cautious call (~50%) confirmed. All three names broke their stated triggers: NVDA cleared below $210 at the open and pressed to $205.80–$205.90, essentially tagging the $205 target. QQQ broke below $715 at the open, pressed to $702, and closed right at target at $705.94. SPY confirmed back–to–back 15–minute closes below $750 at 3:15 and 3:30 before recovering into the close at $750.72 — the trigger confirmed twice intraday, but SPY didn't finish pinned below pivot the way QQQ and NVDA did. No invalidation at any point on any name. Grade: CONFIRMED.
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Today's Live Setup, For Reference
All three names gapped hard again overnight — the second consecutive session the Ground Truth bands have rolled lower. New pivots: SPY $740 (support $735 / resistance $745), QQQ $692 (support $685 / resistance $700), NVDA $200 (support $195 / resistance $205). Pre–market, QQQ is already trading below its new pivot at $691.12, NVDA is sitting almost exactly on its new pivot at $200.50, and SPY is at $742.99 — still inside its band, but well under the $750 level it was pinned to yesterday.
The big structural fact: this is the tail–risk scenario from yesterday's report actually happening, not a new one. Wire reports shortly before this went out that the U.S. launched new strikes and Iran claims civilian infrastructure was hit. Tokyo confirmed the risk–off tone overnight with a full close, down 4.03%.
Main catalyst today: the 10:00 AM Prelim UMich Sentiment/Inflation Expectations print lands on a complex that's already gapped lower on the escalation, not on a clean pin. Today is also monthly OpEx, so expect a wider range than usual either way this breaks.
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Free Insight
QQQ's $700 strike was yesterday's dominant open–interest wall and functioned as a same–day floor. Now that spot trades below it, that level's job in the market structure has flipped — it's resistance now, not support. When price crosses through a major open–interest strike like that, the level's role literally flips. Watching for that flip is one of the simplest ways to read where dealer hedging pressure is pointing, whether or not you trade off this report.
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Nate
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Flow Maps Pro (and “The Macro Letter”) is an educational platform providing institutional macro market research, order flow analysis, and mathematical data for educational and informational purposes only. We are not registered financial advisors, broker–dealers, or commodity trading advisors (CTAs). While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, pricing, strikes, dates, and trade levels may contain errors or become outdated without notice. No content, tools, or trade frameworks shared constitute a personalized recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, option, or financial instrument. Options trading involves a high degree of risk and can result in the loss of your entire principal. Past performance or options flow anomalies do not guarantee future market results. All sales are final. By utilizing this platform, you agree that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and risk management.
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